吉林省主要粮食作物生产风险评价

充分认识吉林省主要粮食作物生产面临的风险,为稳定粮食产量和保障国家粮食安全提供参考。以县级行政单元为研究对象,在运用直线滑动平均法对作物单产进行趋势模拟的基础上,运用非参数信息扩散模型对吉林省玉米、水稻和大豆3种主要粮食作物的生产风险进行了评估。结果表明:不同类型作物生产所面临的风险大小不同,单产损失风险从大到小依次为大豆、玉米、水稻;西北部地区县域的风险普遍较大,其次是东南角地区,而中部地区县域的风险相对较小;吉林省玉米、水稻和大豆3种作物单产损失率30%以上的概率较小。     

农业供应链金融风险的主要特征与风险防范的基本原则

我国农业供应链突出表现为“集体化”、“现代化”和“生态化”，资金的安全性、流动性和信用程度都需要整体协同管控。交易成本和信息不对称决定了我国农业供应链以间接融资为主，其金融风险的特征主要表现为道德风险突出、整体风险难识别、可能引致区域系统性风险和行业系统性风险。因此，应当因地制宜确定农业供应链金融支持项目，并运用系统论原理控制农业供应链金融风险。     

Disease risk perception and diversity of management strategies by farmers: The case of anthracnose caused by Colletotrichum gloeosporioides on water yams (Dioscorea alata) in Guadeloupe

Disease perception and adequate management practices are two essential issues faced by farmers, especially in the current context of climate change which may potentially increase disease risk. We investigated the diversity of water yam cropping systems in Guadeloupe through interviews, how producers and international yam research scientists perceived anthracnose, and how this perception correlated with farmers’ risk management strategies. We found that disease perception by farmers is very close to perception by international yam experts, as both have the same perception of the hierarchy of factors translating into disease. Three different yam production strategies coexist at a local scale, where agronomic practices and socio-economic profiles are distinct and consistent with attitude toward anthracnose risk management. Six factors were perceived as decreasing the disease: associated crop species; crop rotation; staking; weeding; crop monitoring and varietal admixture. Yam producers raising crops more intensively were risk prone, while others usually sought practices to manage disease appearance and spread. Both cumulative risk and past anthracnose epidemic experiences translated into heavier reliance on chemicals. These results have practical implications for designing best yam crop management systems and control of yam anthracnose.     

基于点评估方法的两广地区番木瓜中农药残留膳食暴露风险研究

为评估两广地区番木瓜中主要农药的残留情况及其产生的风险,采集了广东、广西地区40个生产基地的番木瓜样品进行测试分析,研究其生产过程中使用的杀虫剂、杀菌剂、杀螨剂和植物生长调节剂等各种农药残留情况,并对我国不同人群的膳食暴露风险进行了评估。结果显示,40批次番木瓜中检出农药残留32批次;在检出的32份番木瓜样品中,检出率超过10%的有咪鲜胺、吡虫啉、多菌灵、啶虫脒和苯醚甲环唑5种农药,检出率分别为51.1%、21.5%、13.3%、11.1%、10.9%。采用点评估方法,选择检出率在10%以上的咪鲜胺、吡虫啉、多菌灵、啶虫脒和苯醚甲环唑,进行农药残留慢性膳食摄入风险（%ADI）评估、急性膳食摄入风险（%ARfD）评估,并进行不同消费人群暴露点评估。结果显示：检出的5种农药%ADI均低于100.00%,为0.00023%~0.0059%;%ARfD远低于100%,为0.50%~28.3%,5种农药的急性和慢性摄入风险均为儿童高于成年人,绝大多数女性的摄入风险高于男性;5种农药急性摄入风险均高于慢性摄入风险,风险水平由高到低为咪鲜胺>啶虫脒>苯醚甲环唑>多菌灵>吡虫啉,但点评估结果均远低于100%,说明通过食用番木瓜摄入的农药残留极其微量,不会对人体产生急性或慢性风险。     

Anthropogenically disturbed potentially toxic elements in roadside topsoils of a suburban region of Bishkek,Central Asia

The ecological environment in Central Asia is vulnerable to pressure from human activity due to the physical geography and climatic fragility of this region. A set of indicators suitable for the future assessment of this pressure needs to be proposed. Thirty‐six topsoil samples (0–5 cm) were collected from roadsides in a suburban region of Bishkek, the capital of the Kyrgyz Republic in Central Asia, and a risk assessment of anthropogenically disturbed potentially toxic elements (PTEs) was systematically conducted with classic statistical methods. The results of detrended correspondence analysis and principal component analysis clearly showed that topsoil samples with high contents of PTEs (Pb, Zn and Cu) were strongly affected by traffic within a distance threshold of 200 m and that anthropogenic effects decreased significantly with increasing distance from the highway. The enrichment factor and anthropogenic contribution for Pb were the highest among the three PTEs, with average values of 2.0% and 47.4%, respectively, suggesting enrichment. However, the results of the human health risk assessment also indicated that noncarcinogenic risks did not occur for any of the anthropogenic PTEs. The reported method provides a new systematic pathway to reveal anthropogenic influences on the geochemical composition of soil. The conclusions of this work will be highly valuable as important guidelines for agriculture, and the results of the PTE contents will provide a scientific basis for soil collection in future studies.     

陕西市售液态牛奶中黄曲霉毒素M1污染水平分析及风险评估

【目的】全面评价陕西液态牛奶中黄曲霉毒素M_1(aflatoxin M_1,AFM_1)污染状况及其产生的健康风险。【方法】于2018年上半年在陕西全省范围内城市、县城及乡镇采集液态奶样本111份进行检测,结合中国居民营养与健康状况监测数据库中液态奶消费数据,对不同人群通过液态奶对AFM_1的摄入水平进行分析。采用联合国粮农组织/世界卫生组织食品添加剂联合专家委员会(JECFA)确立的AFM_1暴露引发肝癌风险公式和安全限值两种方法,分析描述相关健康风险。【结果】111份液态奶样本中95份检出AFM_1,但均未超过国家限量标准,平均含量为23.95 ng/kg。不同性别年龄组中,一般人群对AFM_1的平均摄入量为0.004～0.082 ng/(kg·d),肝癌风险为0.010～0.225例/(亿人·年),消费人群对AFM_1平均摄入量为0.041～0.272 ng/(kg·d),肝癌风险为0.113～0.745例/(亿人·年)。【结论】陕西液态牛奶中AFM_1污染引发的健康风险总体较低,但需对部分低年龄段(2～11岁)液态奶消费人群AFM_1膳食暴露引发的健康风险予以关注。     

钝化材料对农田土壤Cd形态及微生物群落的影响

为探讨钝化剂对土壤Cd生态风险和土壤微生物群落结构的影响，通过田间试验，在轻度Cd污染水稻田中施加钝化剂（海泡石、石灰、秸秆生物炭和螯合铁肥）开展相关研究。结果表明：施加钝化剂使土壤pH值提高0.17~1.29个单位，Cd的可交换态减少29.79%~64.48%。施加海泡石、石灰、秸秆生物炭使得微生物群落的多样性指数（ACE、Chao1、Shannon）增加，但螯合铁肥不利于微生物群落的生长，多样性指数均减少。土壤微生物群落随钝化剂的施加发生显著改变，变形菌门、厚壁菌门、拟杆菌门相对丰度有所增加，芽单胞菌门、绿弯菌门、螺旋体菌门相对丰度均降低。相关性分析表明，pH和Cd是影响微生物群落的关键因素，此外Cd形态也对微生物群落产生了影响。研究表明，施用钝化剂可降低土壤中重金属Cd的潜在生态风险，改变土壤微生物群落结构，使多种微生物群落得到抑制或增强。     

基于体外模拟法评价蔬菜中Cd的健康风险与污染土壤修复效果

为探明北方地区常见蔬菜中Cd的健康风险，以北京地区Cd污染的大棚菜地土壤为对象，利用盆栽实验测定了韭菜和小油菜对Cd的吸收、转运特征及2种修复剂（沸石+蚯蚓粪，凹凸棒+蚯蚓粪）对Cd污染土壤的修复效果，基于体外模拟法和人体健康风险评价方法对污染土壤修复前、后的2种蔬菜中Cd的有效性及人体健康风险进行评价。结果表明，污染土壤上的2种蔬菜中Cd含量均超过《食品安全国家标准食品中污染物限量》，但2种蔬菜对Cd的吸收具有显著差异，小油菜中Cd的含量为韭菜的2.04倍；体外模拟法测定结果表明，韭菜和小油菜中Cd在模拟人体胃液中的有效浓度分别为0.027、0.039 mg·kg^-1，韭菜中的Cd对人体具有更高的生物有效性；基于人体健康风险评价方法对2种蔬菜中Cd进行健康风险评价，结果表明，污染土壤上种植的2种蔬菜中Cd对人体具有较高的致癌风险，其中，对0~6岁儿童的致癌风险大于成人（>18岁）的风险；添加修复剂可使韭菜和小油菜中Cd含量最大分别降低65.2%和72.3%；2种修复剂处理的韭菜与小油菜中Cd的生物有效性和致癌风险值显著下降，其中凹凸棒+蚯蚓粪处理土壤的2种蔬菜中Cd的致癌风险值接近安全水平。     

突发水污染风险评价与应急对策研究进展

突发水污染事故的频繁发生,严重威胁着水生态环境,使水生生物受到威胁,社会经济遭受损失,造成恶劣社会影响。因此在事故发生前进行风险识别与评价,并采取应急预防控制措施是减小事故危害的重要手段。本文采用文献调研法综述了以突发水污染风险识别为前提的风险评价与应急对策的研究现状及发展趋势,采取专家意见法提出环境风险受体量化分级依据。并采用类比法对突发水污染风险评价的方式进行归类,依据环境风险特征对应急对策进行研究。归纳出突发水污染风险源包括固定污染源及移动污染源两种,得出突发水污染风险评价包含3种方式:定性评价法、半定量评价法及定量评价法,构建了应急预案的预警指标体系,并按照反应时间流程对应急预案进行了梳理。未来突发水污染风险评价与应急对策将进一步拓展风险源识别,构建完善的评价技术规范体系。